Managing Equity Risk in 2018
by Ryan McGlothlin & James Walton
Protecting gains yet remaining invested
The bull market in US equities continues and approaches its 9 year anniversary – the second longest since WWII. In 2018, many investors face an uncomfortable dilemma. Past gains can be locked in from a position of relative strength but strong economic conditions and the desire to outperform bonds mean many will also wish to stay invested. We look at how to protect against market declines while retaining equity upside exposure.
The past year in review
Equity returns have exceeded the expectations of most investors. At the end of 2017, the S&P 500 had posted a gain in 14 consecutive months signaling not only strong performance, but also a decline in market volatility and an increased resilience to events that previously might have triggered a sell-off. Despite the Fed increasing interest rates, political uncertainty in both the US and Europe, and the threat of war in Korea, any dips in equity markets have been temporary and treated as a buying opportunity by investors.
We highlighted at the beginning of 2017 the increased upside and downside in equity markets following the election of Donald Trump (“Equity Risk Under Trump-onomics”). The upside factors have dominated. We have seen tax reform finalized and potentially economically damaging policies relating to protectionism yet to materialize. However, probably the more significant wind in the sails of markets over the past year has been strong economic growth in all major global regions for the first time since 2007.
Looking forward to 2018
Equity valuations look historically expensive and we are seeing increasing evidence that we are relatively late in the economic cycle. However, we have yet to see the indicators of an economic slow-down that could provide a clearer message to sell equities and take the gains achieved to date. In fact, on a relative basis, we currently prefer to take risk in equities rather than government or corporate bonds while at the same time we acknowledge the very real risk of a market fall.
What does this mean for investors?
The continued rise in equity markets has placed many funds in a significantly stronger position than a year ago. When considering what to do now with their equity allocation, investors have essentially four choices:
What can be achieved using equity options?
The chart below shows the total return over 3 years of an example strategy using equity options combined with passive equities. The return of the strategy, shown on the vertical axis, is a pre-defined function of the total return on the equity market (shown on horizontal axis). The equity market is the S&P 500, although a similar shape is possible for other major indices such as the MSCI World:
As of 8 January, 2018. Net of estimated transaction costs and fees.
- Capital protection if the total return on equities is as low as -15% over the next 3 years; downside participation is resumed thereafter (achieved with put options)
- Some equity upside is forgone because the total return of the strategy is capped at 25%, achieved by selling a call option.
Comparison of total returns over 3 years:
In summary, equity derivatives can be regarded as an additional tool in the toolbox to manage equity risk beyond simply continuing to hold equities, buying bonds or diversifying away from equities. Potentially vulnerable equity markets can be protected in a pre-defined way that is both transparent and low cost.
Industry Since: 1997
Bio: Click Here
Ryan is responsible for developing client investment and risk management strategies. He is the co-head of River and Mercantile’s US business. Prior to joining River and Mercantile in 2007, Ryan spent several years working for Barclays Capital in London where he focused on financial risk management for institutional investors. He began his finance career as an investment banker in Houston advising companies on capital raising and M&A transactions. Ryan holds an M.B.A. from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and a B.A. (Honors) from the University of Texas at Austin.
Industry Since: 2004
Bio: Click Here
James works with clients on financial risk management, develops investment strategies and new investment solutions. James joined River and Mercantile from Legal and General, a UK-based insurance and fund management group, where he performed a number of investment roles on both sides of the Atlantic. This included ALM, credit strategy, illiquid assets and risk functions relating to retirement business and, most recently, James led the development of the investment strategy backing US Pension Risk Transfer business which began in 2015. James started his career at Aon as an ALM consultant to defined benefit pension plans where he also developed Aon’s LDI, strategic asset allocation processes and analytics. James is a qualified actuary and holds a first-class Masters degree in Physics from The University of Oxford.